Why I Write – Econlib

The Cato Institute recently released a new poll and report describing public opinion on trade. The overall figure is very encouraging: 63% of Americans want to increase trade with other countries. There are some details that need to be discussed, but in general the Americans do not have the protectionist nature of their politicians. This too is encouraging because it does not signal a broad turn away from the trade liberalism that has generally characterized the post-World War II era, at least in the minds of the public.

What’s interesting about these numbers is that they are consistent with Americans being skeptical about the effects of trade on jobs and wages. According to the poll, about 39% of respondents worry that trade reduces the number of jobs, 37% worry that trade reduces the quality of jobs available, and 39% think trade reduces wages. 80% fear the trade has hurt some U.S. industries. Despite these concerns, Americans reject protectionism: 2/3rds to 4/5ths of Americans reject tariffs if even small price increases occur (the question is asked multiple times in multiple ways, thus the scope). About half of Americans (48%) reject tariffs lobbied for by companies or industry groups.

There are many more fascinating tidbits in the report. But these examples of skepticism represent an important source of progress for the classical liberal movement. Education appears to be the way to reduce skepticism about trade and build broader support. Of course, education can be formal (according to one of the graphs in the report, support for trade is strongly correlated with a person’s formal educational performance), but with the proliferation of blogs, YouTube and other cheap media, education can also be formal. can also be informal.

And this is why I write. Writing blog posts, op-eds, creating podcasts, and so on are an essential 21st century method of conveying information and helping people overcome their skepticism. Especially in trading, correcting misconceptions is very difficult. Concepts such as comparative advantage are very difficult to understand and explain. But Americans seem to have a good intuition for trading. As an academic, I think it’s a worthy effort to help Americans understand these gut feelings.

PS: You might respond: “If trade is so popular, why is protectionism a platform of both major parties?” The report also answers that. Only 1% of respondents say trade and globalization is a “top 3” political issue for them. Protectionist adoption by both Democrats and Republicans is your classic Public Choice outcome: while politically unpopular, the group that cares about it is a minority. Politicians can take this position, win votes from special interest groups that strongly support such benefits, and not significantly risk losing votes. Other issues such as inflation, jobs, immigration, etc. all play a larger role for voters. Helping them understand the link between trade and these issues will also help push back the protectionist movement.