London’s iconic black cabs could all but disappear by 2040, warn long-serving taxi drivers who have seen their ranks thinned by a third in the past decade.
At the heart of the crisis are increasing pressure to switch to electric vehicles, an aging workforce reluctant to invest in expensive new taxis, and city-wide ‘anti-car’ measures that drivers say are making it harder than ever to serve passengers quickly.
The scale of the decline in the number of drivers is striking: from a record high of 25,538 in 2014, figures from November 2024 show that there are now only 16,965 left – a drop of 33.6 percent. While demand for black cabs has remained strong, the supply of available vehicles and drivers is steadily declining, with many nearing retirement and fewer newcomers taking the plunge.
Steve McNamara, head of the Licensed Taxi Driver’s Association, believes taxi drivers are being taken for granted. He claims that a proliferation of low-traffic neighbourhoods, along with a maze of cycle lanes and 20mph restrictions, has made London a place that is ‘virtually impossible’ to navigate. “They have built a road network for white, middle-class men using cycle lanes, to the detriment of the majority of Londoners,” he says. “It’s incredibly stressful and a lot of people think, ‘I can’t do this anymore.’”
For drivers who remain on the road, earnings have been good. Fewer taxis in circulation mean black cabs now control a larger share of the market, allowing some drivers to earn as much as £100,000 a year. However, Transport for London (TfL) is considering increasing fixed fares by a further 7.5 percent by 2025, on top of recent increases totaling more than 15 percent since 2022.
Ironically, those rising fares have not dampened passenger demand. Yet taxi driver Tom Hutley is concerned about how rising prices, combined with diverted journeys due to road restrictions, will affect customer perception. “If it takes twice as long and costs £15 instead of £10, people might choose a different option next time,” he warns.
The ever-growing number of private rental companies, including Uber, once threatened to undercut black cabs with low fares. However, a combination of price increases and inflationary pressures have made black cabs more competitive. “We are no longer necessarily more expensive than Uber,” says McNamara. For many passengers, a meter taxi with a regulated rate now feels no different in terms of price.
Despite the environmental benefits, the shift to electric taxis poses a financial barrier for many drivers. A new electric black taxi could cost up to £80,000, or £100,000 in finance. About 60 percent of London’s black cabs are now zero-emission vehicles, but part-time drivers and those nearing retirement are reluctant to invest so heavily. Diesel taxis must be taken off the road at the age of 12 under TfL’s green policy, meaning older vehicles with plenty of life left in them will no longer be able to drive.
“I’m in my 60s and don’t plan on spending £80,000,” explains an experienced taxi driver. “I don’t have a problem with electricity, but I’m not going to do that.” Previous grants of up to £10,000 for the scrapping of older diesel taxis have ended, leaving drivers with less incentive to upgrade.
The Knowledge – London’s famous requirement to remember 25,000 streets – is still attracting newcomers, but not enough to offset the mass of motorists retiring. TfL data shows that 62 percent of current taxi drivers are over the age of 53, and there is limited interest among the younger generations to replace them.
Neil Garratt of the London Assembly says the city’s black cabs are “at a crossroads” and has urged the mayor to act quickly: “Black cabs are an essential means of transport and it is within the mayor’s powers to secure the future.”
TfL’s Graham Robinson adds that a revised action plan is being prepared to support “hardworking black cab drivers”. The funding, he says, has helped many switch to greener vehicles, along with improving the city’s taxi ranks and increasing access to bus lanes. But for many taxi drivers, these measures may be too little too late to save an industry on the brink.