Do you dream of a white Christmas? Weather experts say Denver is the largest U.S. city to experience a snow holiday, but the chances remain low.
Aside from the odd Christmas storm, the chances of a white Christmas in the US are getting slimmer due to the trend of rising temperatures and warmer ocean waters. according to a December report issued by AccuWeather meteorologists.
According to AccuWeather data collected over the past three decades, Denver has an average of 34% chance of having a classic White Christmas every year.
The Colorado city ties with Chicago, beating Indianapolis, Boston and New York by about 10% or more, AccuWeather meteorologists said in the report. These four places make up the rest of the top five major cities with a historic chance of a white Christmas.
The National Weather Service gives Colorado a slightly more optimistic estimate.
“If having a white Christmas means having an inch or more of snow on the ground, we have a 36% chance,” said Maggie Ideker, a meteorologist at the NWS office in Boulder. “On the other hand, if a white Christmas means measurable snowfall on Christmas Day, then the chance drops to about 14%.”
In the past 30 years, Denver has had only seven Christmases with measurable snowfall, about 23%, Ideker said. However, the city has already seen snowy Christmas mornings 13 times in that same period, about 43%.
AccuWeather defines a white Christmas as having one inch or more of snow on the ground every December 25, regardless of whether it was already there or if it fell on Christmas Day.
It’s too early to say whether Denver will be lucky with snow this year, Ideker said, adding that forecasters will have a better idea about a week before the holidays.
Only a handful of the 25 largest cities in the U.S. have a better than 1% chance of a white Christmas, according to AccuWeather meteorologists, putting Denver well ahead of the pack.
Denver last saw a white Christmas in 2022, when several days of winter weather and negative temperatures in the days before the holiday led to 2 centimeters of snow on the ground Christmas morning, according to NWS data.
AccuWeather meteorologists said 2022 marked the most widespread white Christmas in the U.S. in the past three decades, with more than half of the country covered in snow.
Denver’s last white Christmases before 2022 came together when heavy snow hit the city on Christmas Day in both 2014 and 2015, NWS data shows.
Having two white Christmases in a row is “extremely rare,” NWS forecasters said. It was also the first time Denver received several inches of snow on Christmas itself, instead of the days leading up to the holiday, two years in a row.
According to NWS data, the heaviest snowfall in Denver on Christmas Day in 2007 was 9 inches. The greatest snow depth ever recorded on the ground in Denver on Christmas morning was 2 feet, measured after the Christmas Eve snowstorm of 1982.
Outside of major cities, AccuWeather meteorologists said mountain towns in the western U.S. and the Rocky Mountains have much better chances of having a white Christmas.
Colorado ski towns — including Winter Park, Aspen, Steamboat Springs, Breckenridge and Telluride — range from a historical 94% to 99% probability of a white Christmas, according to AccuWeather data.
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