The new COVID XEC variant was first found in Berlin, Germany, in June. (Photo by Christian … [+]
XEC may sound like some kind of rock band, cryptocurrency, or male enhancement supplement. But the XEC COVID-19 variant is something you probably don’t want to see at a party or anywhere near your private life. It is the latest COVID variant to gain attention for spreading around the world. And a big question after the so-called ‘Summer of COVID’ is whether the XEC variant will fuel the next COVID peak in the coming months.
This past summer – yes, the summer of 2024 is now in the past – was nicknamed the “Summer of COVID” because it saw what appeared to be the largest summer COVID wave since July 2022. That’s based on wastewater data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention because many people actually no longer get tested for COVID. Without sufficient testing and reporting of test results, any count of COVID-19 cases is likely to be a significant undercount of the true number.
The summer wave was led by the so-called FLiRT variants, mainly KP.3.1.1 and KP.3. It also didn’t help that the majority of people flirted with contracting the virus by not really taking precautions against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For example, the use of face masks appears to have gone the way of skinny jeans, even though studies have clearly shown that N95 respirators can reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
This fall may currently see a drop in cases following the surge. But the emphasis here is on the words ‘may be’. That’s because after four years of COVID, the US still doesn’t have a reliable COVID surveillance system. COVID certainly hasn’t gone away. Although vaccination and previous exposure have reduced the risk of more severe outcomes from COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 can still land some people in the hospital. It also seems to still lead to long-term COVID-19 in a number of people.
And now, surprise, surprise, there’s a new spiky kid on the block: the aforementioned XEC variant. The XEC is actually the lovechild of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 COVID variants.
The XEC was first detected in Berlin, Germany, in June. But what happened in Berlin did not stay in Berlin. This ball of no fun has already appeared in 27 different countries in Europe, North America and Asia. That has included showing up in 12 states in the United States so far, according to Scripps Research’s “Outbreak.info” web page. And while it is not yet the dominant variant of COVID, it does appear to have a fitness advantage over other circulating variants.
Now, a fitness benefit doesn’t mean this variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) wears tights and can do more glute bridges. It means that for some reason it can spread more quickly or easily than other variants. The reason is not yet clear. Perhaps those infected with this variant could shed more of the virus. Perhaps the XEC variant can enter the cells more easily. Or it could be that this variant is better able to evade existing immune protection against vaccination or previous infection. More data and studies are needed to determine which of the above may be the case. But the fact that the XEC variant appears to be spreading quite quickly suggests that it does indeed have some kind of fitness benefit.
More data and studies are also needed to determine whether the XEC variant is more or less likely to cause severe COVID symptoms and outcomes than current and previous variants. Again, this will be difficult to say without more widespread testing and a more extensive surveillance system than what is in place now. The updated COVID vaccines that are now available should provide at least some protection against the XEC variant. Exactly how much remains to be seen.
There is a very good chance that a new COVID wave will occur in the coming months. In recent years this has happened in November. That is not surprising, because in November the weather becomes considerably colder and drier and many more activities move indoors.
But don’t assume that COVID activity won’t pick up again before November. And don’t assume there will be a warning just before the next wave, given the lack of a more reliable and comprehensive surveillance system. So you may have to be careful with XEC yourself and take precautions if you don’t want to get COVID and possibly long COVID.