Table of Contents
One of the most anticipated showdowns of the season is scheduled for this week as UConn and USC face off in a rematch of the 2024 Elite Eight in Hartford, Conn. Both teams boast top-10 offenses and defenses, according to Her Hoop Stats, which usually indicates a national title contender.
During the preseason, this matchup was billed as a battle between the two projected favorites for national Player of the Year: Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins. However, another player has taken over the two in that conversation, the same player who helped hand the Huskies and Trojans their only losses of the season. Both Bueckers and Watkins were defeated by Hannah Hidalgo in their matches against Notre Dame, as Hidalgo has taken the pole position in the NPOY race.
GO DEEPER
Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo has UConn’s number (again).
It’s far too early in the season to come to any conclusions, but the fact that three players are putting together such solid cases is in stark contrast to how the race has developed over the past two seasons. With Lauren Betts and Madison Booker also leading national title contenders (UCLA and Texas also have top-10 offenses and defenses), Hidalgo may not even be the favorite anymore. The relative parity between the teams at the top of the table also extends to the country’s best players.
That adds even more intrigue to a big matchup between UConn and USC. In addition to a pre-tournament test, each team’s star could use a big performance to make up ground on Hidalgo.
Dropped out: Iowa (21)
Almost famous: Iowa, Utah, Vanderbilt
Three emerging teams
Southern California
As Kiki Iriafen adjusts to her offensive role at USC, her offensive partner Rayah Marshall has expanded her skill set. Marshall has always been a dominant defensive presence, and that hasn’t changed as a senior. Her block percentage is in the 99th percentile nationally and she is stopping even more shots. Opponents are shooting a ridiculous 23.9 percent with Marshall as the primary defender because she can defend the post and cover ground on the perimeter. USC’s defense is 16.7 points per 100 possessions better with Marshall on the court.
But Marshall has become more versatile offensively this season. Playing alongside Iriafen, who excels near the basket, Marshall is forced to initiate possessions at the rim. Marshall isn’t exactly a long-range shooting threat, as she has made two field goals outside the paint all season (although one of them did come against Elon on Sunday). However, her driving game has improved, allowing her to get into the lane, collapse the defense and dump the ball to Iriafen. Watch Marshall create the easy look for Iriafen on these two possessions, with the second coming after a trademark block at the other end.
As a center, she has the third-most assists for USC, behind only Watkins and Talia von Oelhoffen. Marshall had a below-average assist-to-turnover ratio her first two seasons at USC and a below-average assist rate last year, but she has now become one of the most efficient frontcourt passers. The Trojans need that ability from Marshall to create space for Iriafen to work. If the two can reinforce each other, it will increase USC’s offensive ceiling.
Kentucky
Georgia Amoore’s three-point shooting has fallen off a cliff this season, as the 35.3 percent career shooter is making a quarter of her attempts from beyond the arc. As the alpha and omega of Kentucky’s offense, Amoore must be an individual scoring threat for the Wildcats to win games against quality opponents. Against North Carolina two weeks ago, Amoore missed all five of her three-point attempts, and Kentucky was routed by 19 points.
But it looks like Amoore is rediscovering her groove. In the Wildcats’ two wins last week, the fifth-year guard shot 5 of 14 from deep, a significant improvement from her atrocious start to the year, and she was particularly crafty in the midrange against Purdue when Kentucky won its first real road . competition from 2024-2025. The Wildcats chased Amoore off the ball and used her as a screener on a number of reverse pick-and-rolls; she could turn around and face a bigger defender and use her speed to dust them on her way to the hoop.
It was fun to see Kentucky practice how they plan to attack zones this season
Really a good attacking team, but a bit hyped up per zone to start the year
Loved the counter yesterday against Purdue. Take the ball out of Amoore’s hands and take her to the nail pic.twitter.com/r8mMxHprMM
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) December 15, 2024
Kentucky got off to a slow start against the Boilermakers, scoring two points in the first seven-plus minutes. Amoore then scored 13 points over the next 10 minutes to turn the early deficit into a three-point lead. Amoore has already been an excellent floor general and playmaker for the Wildcats, averaging 7.2 assists per game in his career. Kentucky could make some noise in the SEC if it adds shooting.
Georgia Tech
The last undefeated team in the ACC is Georgia Tech, an outcome no one predicted this season. The Yellow Jackets have quality wins over South Dakota State, Oregon and are now on the road against North Carolina when they were an absolute buzzsaw in the first half.
Georgia Tech is working hard to win the possession battle. The Yellow Jackets attack the offensive glass and don’t turn the ball over, resulting in 12.8 more shot attempts per game than their opponents. With that margin, they wouldn’t even have to shoot that well to win, but their effective field goal percentage ranks in the 86th percentile nationally — thus the 11-0 record, which is the best start in program history. They also don’t rely too much on individual players; seven Yellow Jackets average at least 20 minutes per game, but none exceed 30 minutes, and they rank fourth among Power Conference teams in bench points behind South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee.
What stood out in their win against the Tar Heels was that nothing seemed out of the ordinary. They applied a lot of pressure to the rim in the half court and in transition, with Tonie Morgan and Zoesha Smith doing a good job of scoring in the paint. Dani Carnegie is as good as any freshman in the ACC, threatening a 50/40/90 shooting season while leading the team in scoring. They are active on defense and accelerate opponents even when not forcing elite turnovers. And they play hard, which is where the depth comes in handy. After eleven games, it’s time to wipe out those preseason projects. Georgia Tech is no longer a fluke and much better than the 10th best team in this conference.
Two falling teams
Texas
This is nitpicking for the Longhorns after they won two games this week by a combined 69 points, including on the road against Richmond, which is 25th in net. But something about Texas’ offense bothers me.
Madison Booker is the only consistent scoring threat, and her offense relies on some tough shots, which, to her credit, she makes at a high clip. But the Longhorns are a bit isolated and don’t allow many three-pointers, which limits their advantage against the top teams. Ideally, Aaliyah Moore or Laila Phelia would be that secondary offensive force behind Booker, but neither has panned out this season. It doesn’t help that the paint is extremely crowded, especially now that Rori Harmon — who isn’t considered a shooter — has replaced Shaylee Gonzales in the starting lineup.
Against the Spiders, Texas forced 24 turnovers and nailed another 20 field goals, but won by just 10. It was similar to the season-ending loss to NC State in 2023-2024, when the Longhorns also had a 20-plus field goal lead but lost by 10. While advanced metrics say Texas excels on offense, the process seems too challenging, and it is something to keep an eye on as the SEC slate begins.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes continue to put on a show, but they need to figure out how to close out games. A week ago, the team fell in the fourth quarter against Tennessee and gave up a 14-1 run in their first loss of the season. On Sunday against Michigan State, Iowa blew a 9-point lead and allowed a 14-0 run in the fourth quarter. Those two games sparked a Hawkeyes comeback against Iowa State, but that ending was more about the Cyclones’ struggles than it was about Iowa.
Turnovers are out of control for the Hawkeyes, who give the ball away on 25 percent of clutch possessions. This has happened despite the fact that Iowa often went small and played with more ballhandlers. Instead, the Hawkeyes have struggled to control possession and compromised their defense in the process, as lineups with Hannah Stuelke at the five aren’t getting enough stops. Some giveaways are just comical, like an errant pass that ended up in coach Jan Jensen’s hands in the final period against Michigan State.
Iowa has some younger players this season, but the turnovers come from their veterans – Lucy Olsen had seven against the Spartans, and fellow senior Kylie Feuerbach had five. Stuelke and senior Addison O’Grady combine to average 4.9 turnovers from the frontcourt. With the fast-paced style of the Hawkeyes, some mistakes are expected, but this level of carelessness cannot continue in the Big Ten.
(Photo by Rayah Marshall: Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)