Table of Contents
Legacy chipmaker Intel (INTC) has shed 60% on an annual basis due to the company’s poor performance in 2024 and the significant losses it has incurred. While the bulls think Intel is a hidden gem with great value, the bears believe it is a trap. What exactly is it? That’s what I’m going to try to answer in this article.
To better understand Intel’s situation, it is important to note that the company, known for its computer processors and the x86 architecture (the instruction set that dominates personal computers even today), has recently been dethroned from its status as a kingpin in the chip industry. It simply failed to keep up with the competition, but let’s save the historical missteps for another time.
That’s why I’m bearish on Intel because of its significant losses, significant cash burn, and poor execution.
Intel faces mounting losses
Central to my negative attitude toward Intel is the fact that the company’s losses are increasing. While I said I’d save the missteps for another time, it’s important to understand the reason behind these losses before we dive into the numbers.
Going back to the early 2000s, Intel was the go-to shop for anyone looking for cutting-edge chips, and business was booming. The company was the first to bring the latest chips to market, until it became too comfortable with its status as chip queen. For example, in 2014, when Barrack Obama was in power, Intel postponed the opening of a key location called Fab 42 due to a temporary slowdown in the PC market. Little did they know that this decision would lose business to an emerging foundry company half their size at the time.
Long story short: Intel lost its place to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the street’s favorite foundry operator (TSM). Now let’s dive into the numbers.
In the second quarter of 2024, Intel posted a loss per share of $0.38, missing Street estimates by $0.27. In addition, revenue fell 1% year-over-year to $12.8 billion, which was again $148 million lower than market expectations. Intel’s foundry business is the biggest concern as it posted an operating loss of $2.83 billion, up from the $1.86 billion loss a year ago.
Furthermore, Intel’s share capital is increasing, which is just bad for a loss-making company. Diluted shares rose to 4.26 billion from 4.19 billion a year ago. So not only do you get more losses, but you also get diluted. Now the bulls will argue that Intel Products is profitable, and it was, with operating income of $2.9 billion in the second quarter, compared to $2.5 billion a year ago. However, that just doesn’t do it for me. It’s not enough to offset the losses suffered by Intel Foundry.
Moreover, Intel has been playing catch-up for quite some time and is still nowhere near its competitors. The losses this semiconductor giant has recorded are mainly due to the heavy investments it is making in a desperate bid to regain its place. CapEx exceeded $11.6 billion in Q2 2024, while the company earned only $1.06 billion in operating cash flow. This represents an alarmingly high burn rate, even with the partner contributions of $11.8 billion.
Intel cuts costs and suspends dividend
Looking ahead, I’m not a fan of the decisions Intel management made after another disappointing quarter. While the company may try to be smart with capital allocation, it just doesn’t have a good track record. It has repeatedly delayed facilities and laid off staff in the past when faced with a challenge. During its second-quarter 2024 earnings call, Intel said it will lay off 15% of its employees by the end of 2025 to reduce costs.
Additionally, Intel said it will suspend its dividend at the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, a move that was not well received by the income investors who own the stock. The company explained that it needs to invest that money in CapEx to catch up with the competition. The cash flow statement already includes a significant portion of property, plant and equipment, and while it has declined year on year, the cash flow generation is simply not enough to justify it.
Furthermore, given the delays at Intel’s semiconductor manufacturing plants in the past, I don’t have much confidence in management’s ability to stay on schedule this time.
Intel is a value trap
As I said before, I agree with the bears who currently believe Intel is a value trap, but let me show you how. The bulls claim that Intel is trading at less than its book value (0.7x TTM P/B), so if it were to liquidate its business, they would have some sort of margin of safety. Let me solve this with a short exercise.
If you look at the balance sheet, you’ll see that Intel has about $206.2 billion in assets, of which $27.4 billion is just goodwill and another $4.3 billion is intangible assets. So there is approximately $32 billion that cannot be capitalized in a liquidation scenario.
Now if you look at the current assets of $50.8 billion and then take out the current liabilities of $32 billion and the liabilities of $48.3 billion, you arrive at -$29.5 billion. Therefore, Intel’s negative equity does not provide any investor with a margin of safety in a liquidation scenario.
Finally, let’s say you value Intel based on its cash flow. I see the stock trading at 10.2 times expected operating cash flow, a 51% discount to the sector. Can it generate sufficient cash flow over the next ten years? I don’t feel comfortable assigning Intel multiples and growth rates and projecting that far into the future given the company’s past performance and the way it is currently struggling.
From where I stand now, I see a company that has seen its cash flow, net income, and revenue consistently decline over the past decade. Therefore, in my humble opinion, Intel is a value trap and not in deep value territory.
On the Street, INTC stock has a consensus “Hold” rating, based on 1 Buy, 26 Hold, and 6 Sell recommendations. The average INTC price target of $26.09 implies an increase of 32.8% from current levels.
View more INTC analyst ratings
The bottom line
In summary, Intel’s significant losses this year, increasing cash burn and questionable management decisions paint a troubling picture. Despite its low valuation and potential appeal to value investors, the company’s financial instability and past missteps suggest it’s a value trap rather than a true bargain. The increasing losses and high burn rate of significant investments highlight the risks. Additionally, the suspension of dividends and continued operational delays are adding to the concerns. Given Intel’s declining financials and ineffective recovery efforts, I remain cautious and skeptical about the potential for a turnaround.