Mets cannot hold back. They must be aggressive buyers at the deadline

NEW YORK – Discussing Wednesday how his bullpen plans change from moment to moment during a nine-inning game, Carlos Mendoza chuckled at the idea of ​​creating a pregame plan and sticking to it.

“I don’t know if there’s ever a time when you come up with a game plan and stick to it,” the Mets manager said. “Every time you make an adjustment because the game unfolds. … You have an idea, but then you have to adjust.”

Perhaps Mendoza boss David Stearns should heed that advice when it comes to this season.

The Mets entered 2024 with a clear, consistent plan from ownership to the clubhouse. While they didn’t have the high expectations of previous spring training, they believed they could be legitimate postseason contenders while maintaining a sustained streak of contention going forward. And here they are, days before the trade deadline, as legitimate postseason contenders who have maintained a sustained streak of contention going forward.

But after another memorable win Thursday night, a 3-2 victory over Atlanta that felt like the reverse of so many nightmarish nights at Turner Field, it might be time for Stearns and the New York front office to get a little greedy about 2024 .Yes, the Mets will be buyers at the trade deadline. But let’s make a case for the Mets to do more than just add a reliever this coming week, a plea for the Mets to be aggressive buyers, as they were last on their way to an unexpected pennant in 2015.

The Mets are good enough

On the morning of July 26, let’s create some blind resumes for teams over the years.

Okay, blindfolds off! What do these fairly similar teams all have in common? They all won the pennant.

They were also quite aggressive at the trade deadline. I classified the 2018 Dodgers (Manny Machado) and the 2022 Phillies (David Robertson, Brandon Marsh and Noah Syndergaard) as All-in Buyers – teams that have given up significant prospect capital for the time being. The 2019 Nationals added three relievers, including the man who would record the finale of the World Series. In 2021, Atlanta brought in four outfielders, including the NLCS and World Series MVPs. In 2023, Arizona put itself in better position for the postseason.

(For what it’s worth, the 2015 Mets, another All-in Buyer, were 50-48 with a -7 run differential on July 26.)

No, the Mets lack the kind of rotation and bullpen you normally rely on to carry you into October. However, New York has an offense that appears to be built for the postseason. As evidenced by bashing Gerrit Cole twice in the past month, the Mets’ lineup can go far with the best of them. Only Baltimore has hit more home runs since the Mets’ hot streak began on May 30, and they are tied for fourth in the majors in home runs on the season — ahead of everyone but the Dodgers in the National League. On Thursday, New York was in the game against a dominant Chris Sale as Francisco Lindor turned one Sale error into two Mets runs.

Homers carry fouls in October. The equally productive but differently constructed offense in 2022 finished 15th in the league in home runs, and saw Atlanta and San Diego outscore the lead in the biggest games of the season. This Mets offense can pull off a short run with its power.

The National League is open

Here’s an important caveat: If I were covering the Pirates or the Reds or the Padres or the Diamondbacks, I’d probably make the exact same case. Because the National League is as open as it has been in years.

Los Angeles and Atlanta have been the top two teams on the senior circuit in recent seasons. Both are experiencing more turbulent regular seasons than they are used to. The Dodgers continue to have health questions about their rotation, a dynamic that doomed them last October. Atlanta’s best hitter and best pitcher are out for the season. The lineup looks like a shell of what the Mets are used to facing.

Although the Phillies have taken up the mantle of being the NL team to beat, they are a team that the Mets are quite good at. They memorably went 14-5 against Philadelphia in 2022, and even during a slump in 2023, they went 6-7 against them. This year the Mets are 2-4 against the Phillies. And remarkably, New York is 10-3 against Aaron Nola or Zack Wheeler since the start of the 2022 season.

The timing really clicks

It’s very tempting for teams to try to manipulate their contention window – to err on the side of caution this year and put more eggs in one basket. However, they often fall short in this regard the year to win.

The 2015 Mets could have been more cautious: Syndergaard and Steven Matz were rookies, Wheeler was injured, the NL had several very good teams – surely the Mets’ best chance to get through October would be on the road, right? It turns out that young rotation was never as healthy or as dominant as it was then and there, and the Mets’ aggressiveness paid off.

(Compare that to the 2013-2015 Pirates, who never made the big move to push a very good team over the top. They still haven’t won a postseason series since 1979.)

For the Mets, it’s also fair to ask: What year specifically are they waiting for? Due to injuries to several key players this year, New York will not enter 2025 spring training with the plan to give a talented newcomer an every-day spot. The full integration of guys like Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuña and Ryan Clifford won’t happen until 2026 – by which time Lindor will be 32 and Brandon Nimmo will be 33, on the cusp of their prime.

The goal is to open a long-term battleground and take advantage of legitimate opportunities to win divisions, pennants and championships. The Mets are here. The two players they signed long-term are having the best years of their careers. Their cornerstone first baseman may not be around next year.

The window of battle is already open.

What does this mean?

Let’s face it: this is where most columns like this end. There are all those reasons to go for it, now it’s Stearns’ job to turn them into something.

But I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the current shape of the deadline market makes it difficult to go for it. Teams like the Pirates and Reds and Padres and Diamondbacks are all still in the National League, and the number of vendors is smaller than normal. The top starter likely to be traded may not be able to start much again this season. The best reliever likely to be traded has a walk rate that you wouldn’t easily achieve in blackjack.

It’s harder to provide the kind of deadline blueprint I create before the offseason because acquisition costs in trades are so much harder to predict than salaries on the open market. So I settle for suggestions that are more in line with an all-in approach.

1. The White Sox signed Garrett Crochet knowing you would acquire him to pitch out of the bullpen in 2024. The Athletics reported Thursday that Crochet would prefer to remain on the starter’s roster this season (albeit with limited innings) unless an acquiring team signs him to a contract extension.

As I outlined Thursday morning, the Mets could use a long-term asset. Here’s a 25-year-old left-handed All-Star who leads the league in strikeouts and is interested in a long-term extension. That all feels like good things. (Like Wheeler, Crochet’s likely arbitration salaries for the next two seasons will be suppressed by his lack of availability thus far in his career. So a long-term extension would cost less against the luxury tax than it would otherwise. )

Trade for Crochet, extend him and make him a multi-inning reliever with scheduled appearances the rest of the way. Imagine him coming in behind your right-handed starters in the postseason and serving as a one-man bridge to Edwin Díaz. Put him back in the rotation in 2025 and beyond. That could be worth the significant package of prospects that might be needed, as it would mean the Mets wouldn’t have to dive into the deep end of the starting pitching market this winter for a free agent already in his 30s.

2. If Crochet proves too much, combine a rotation upgrade — primarily a pitcher who misses more bats than the current starters — with two additions in the pen and one on the bench.

In the rotation, I’m thinking of Detroit’s Jack Flaherty and Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi. Flaherty will cost a significant sum, but he too could be a viable option to re-sign.

For the bullpen, one heavily indebted southpaw should be the priority. Scroll past Tanner Scott to his teammate Andrew Nardi or to The Athletics‘s longtime target Andrew Chafin of the Tigers. A new multi-inning arm could also keep the group fresh. Buck Farmer from Cincinnati or Alex Faedo from Detroit could work there.

The final piece would be a versatile bench contributor who could protect the Mets from regression or injury at a few different positions. Detroit’s Andy Ibañez, Tampa Bay’s Amed Rosario, Toronto’s Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Oakland’s Abraham Toro could fit that role.

(Photo by José Buttó: Adam Hunger / Getty Images)