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Poverty will fall below pre-pandemic levels by 2023

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Poverty will fall below pre-pandemic levels by 2023

ABOUT 17.54 million Filipinos were living in poverty in 2023, down significantly from the nearly 20 million in 2021, the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA) said on Monday.

Based on preliminary results from the PSA’s Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), the poverty rate among the population has fallen from 18.1% to 15.5% in 2021.

“This current figure is even lower than the pre-pandemic level of 16.7% in 2018,” President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. said in his State of the Nation address on Monday. He added that nearly 2.5 million Filipinos have been lifted out of poverty.

The latter figure is also lower than the government’s 2023 poverty incidence development target of 16-16.4% in the Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2023-2028.

Meanwhile, the household poverty rate was recorded at 10.9%, or about three million poor families.

The PSA defines poverty incidence as the share of Filipino families with incomes not sufficient to meet the minimum basic food and non-food needs as estimated based on the poverty line.

Meanwhile, 2.7% of Filipino families, or about 740,000 families, did not have enough income to meet their basic food needs.

Among the population, 4.3%, or approximately 4.84 million Filipinos, lived below food poverty thresholds.

With these results, the poverty situation in the Philippines has returned to pre-pandemic levels, the PSA said.

National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said the lower poverty incidence reflects the government’s efforts to implement effective policies and initiatives to improve the lives of Filipinos.

“High inflation in the first half of 2023 likely partially offset the positive effects of income growth on poverty reduction. The decline in poverty could have been sharper if inflation had been more moderate,” Balisacan said in a statement.

He said economic growth was progressive as average per-person income for the poorest Filipinos grew faster than those in the top decile and faster than the rate at which the poverty line increased.

Mr. Balisacan also said that food security remains a top priority of the government, and that creating more quality jobs and developing human capital to improve the earning potential of Filipinos are areas to focus on.

The local statistics office added that the decline in poverty from 2021 was due to the poverty line and income data from 2021 to 2023.

Preliminary data shows that the poverty line, which is mainly affected by changes in food prices, increased by 15.3%, compared to 11.8% previously (2018-2021).

Meanwhile, the 2023 FIES data also showed that average per capita income, especially for families close to the poverty line, increased by 22.9% from 9.2%, higher than the increase in the poverty line.

Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces said poverty reduction likely came from a combination of some economic growth, job creation, government aid programs and stable but high inflation, especially in food.

“While this is positive, the unbanked population may not yet have fully benefited. The higher per capita income, possibly due to economic growth or rising wages, is encouraging,” Roces said in a Viber message.

Jesus Felipe, an economics professor at De La Salle University, said poverty incidence will continue to decline in coming years, but not as quickly as hoped.

“Since poverty in the Philippines is mainly a rural phenomenon, the decline in poverty is linked to improvements in agriculture, especially the decline in the employment share in this sector,” he said in an email.

Overall inflation averaged 6% in 2023, up slightly from 5.8% in 2022. Meanwhile, unemployment hit a low of 4.3% last year, the lowest in two decades, according to the local statistics office. – Abigail Marie P. Yraola

In 2023, the agricultural sector grew by 1.2%, compared to 0.5% in 2022 and the contraction of 0.3% in 2021. Meanwhile, the Philippine economy grew by 5.5% in 2023, from 7.6% in 2022 and 5.7% in 2021.

“We forecast that poverty incidence will decline to 14% in 2026, 13.3% in 2028 and 12.2% in 2030,” Mr Felipe said. — Abigail Marie P. Yraola

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