The trade deficit of the Philippines increased in January to a highest point of three months when both exports and imports picked up, reported the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Friday.
The trade deficit could further aggravate this year while the American trade war escalates, analysts said.
Preliminary data from the PSA showed the trading balance of the country-the difference between the values of export and import balloon to a deficit of $ 5.09 billion of a $ 4.14 billion deficiency in December and the $ 4.36 billion gap a year earlier.
The last figures showed the widest trade deficit in three months since the shortage of $ 5.81 billion in October 2024.
PSA -data showed that the year after year, the export of merchandise in January grew by 6.3% to $ 6.36 billion, which surpassed the growth projection of 6% by the Development Budget and Coordination Committee (DBCC) this year.
Month to month, exports grew by 12.2%. This ended four consecutive months of export decrease.
It was the highest since the $ 6.75 billion in August 2024.
Input increased by 10.8% to $ 11.45 billion in January. Month after month it grew by 16.7%, which means two months deteriorating.
Import growth also exceeded the 5% projection set by the DBCC. The value of the entry was the highest in three months or since $ 12 billion in October last year.
“The fact that it [electronics and semiconductors] Has been negative for a number of months that the demand for our semiconductor is not as hot as the newer, more powerful semiconductors in the world who is really used for the AI industry, “said George N. Manzano, economist from the University of Asia and the Pacific, in a telephone interview.
Electronic products, the most important export product in the country, since these are more than half of the export in January, saw a decrease of 2.6% to $ 3.37 billion in January of $ 3.46 billion in the same month in 2024.
Semiconductors, which are good for almost 40% of the total export and three -quarters of electronic products that month, also signed a contract with 6.8% years after year to $ 2.52 billion.
These decreases were compensated by the double digit increases that were seen in other manufactured goods (with 66.6% to $ 471.07 million), coconut oil (an increase from 80.3% to $ 249.05 million) and other mineral products (to 33.1% to $ 247.09 million).
“The fact that our export also increases is also a good indicator,” said Mr. Manzano.
The United States will remain the top destination of locally made goods in January, with exports with a value of $ 1.13 billion, accounting for 17.7% of the total export sales.
This was followed by Japan with $ 945.80 million (14.9%), Hong Kong with $ 722.81 million (11.4%), China with $ 645.57 million (10.1%) and Singapore with $ 266.48 million (4.2%).
In the meantime, the import of electronic products grew by 14.2% to $ 2.51 billion in January, while mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials rose by 7.1% to $ 1.62 billion.
Other import products with increase were transport equipment (with 8.5% to $ 906.22 million), industrial machines and equipment (with 20% to $ 592.90 million) and iron and steel (with 17.8% to $ 497.35 million).
China is still the largest input source in January with $ 3.31 billion in goods, which means that 28.9% of the total entry out.
It was followed by Japan with $ 912.71 million (8%share), Indonesia with $ 892.95 million (7.8%), South Korea with $ 862.27 million (7.5%) and US with $ 690.81 million (6%).
George T. Barcelon, chairman of the Filipino Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said in a telephone interview that the trade deficit of the country has increased in recent years.
“We do not produce enough competing products for the local supplier or manufacturer to serve the market. And as such it is cheaper to import. We have a pretty big shortage with the whole world, but also with the Asean countries. So those are gaps that have to be filled, “said Mr. Barcelon.
“Because every time we have a trade deficit, in other words, it translates into giving jobs to countries outside, and the jobs are not here in our country,” he added.
Mr Barcelon also mentioned the uncertainties caused by the imminent trade war by the US government under the Trump government.
“One of the issues in the spirit of business people is how our trade will proceed, because our largest market is still mainly North America,” he said.
“If you are insecure, people will not really want to invest …
“So that is just like the biggest thing in the global economy, what the US will do. Because the US is such a big buyer of our export, “he said.
In a research memorandum, Chinabank Research said that the outlook for industry can remain gloomy this year, because continuous efforts can occur in the long term.
Chinabank Research added that a considerable risk will arise if Mr Trump continues with his plan to impose 25% rates on semiconductors this year.
It also said that the shortage of trade deficit ‘could continue to grow this year, with a high risk of increased uncertainties in global trade policy, as well as Trump’s plan to impose mutual rates, since the US is the top destination for Philipino exports’.
Markets prepare for the potential impact of trade policy by US President Donald J. Trump, such as mutual rates for all countries that tax the import of the US.
Mr. Trump will impose 25% rates on Mexican and Canadian goods on Thursday from 4 March, along with another 10% duty on Chinese import of medicines, Reuters reported. At the beginning of February, Mr Trump imposed 10% tax on Chinese import. – Kenneth H. Hernandez