By means of John Victor D. Ordoñez, Reporter
WASHINGTON’s position in handling Manila’s dispute with Beijing over the South China Sea will depend on who ultimately joins newly-elected US President Donald J. Trump’s Cabinet, a security analyst said as his nominees favor an aggressive approach to China.
“What remains to be seen is what attitude the US will take toward the West Philippine Sea and the alliance in 2025 under Donald Trump,” Raymond M. Powell, a fellow at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said in an X message.
“Many of Trump’s early Cabinet nominees have taken aggressive positions on China and could look for opportunities to keep Beijing off balance.”
Last month, Mr. Trump nominated former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe as head of the Central Intelligence Office, FOX News host Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense and Florida Congressman Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor.
He had also appointed New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the United Nations. They are known for their advocacy of a ‘hardline’ foreign policy towards Beijing.
“With Trump’s upcoming return to the White House, we will expect China to intensify its gray zone tactics and legal claims in the West Philippine Sea,” said Chester B. Cabalza, founder and president of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation. in a Facebook Messenger chat. “Beijing is ready to increase its aggression as Manila may be more on top next to Washington.”
The Philippines and China have been embroiled in repeated disputes in recent years over the disputed features of Manila’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), raising regional concerns about miscalculation and escalation at sea.
Last Friday, Reuters reported that China’s coast guard said it had alerted and “driven away” a Philippine C-208 aircraft that had “illegally” entered the airspace over Scarborough Shoal, which the Philippines calls Bajo de Masinloc, in the South China Sea .
China urged the Philippine side to immediately stop “violations and provocations,” the coast guard said, adding that it will continue to strengthen law enforcement in “waters under China’s jurisdiction.”
Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesman Jay Tristan Tarriela clarified in an X-post on Saturday that the PCG ships and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) aircraft left the Shoal area “on their own initiative” after the successful delivery of supplies to area fishermen.
“The PCG ships and BFAR aircraft conducted legitimate patrols in our waters off Bajo De Masinloc to ensure the safety and security of our Filipino fishermen,” Mr. Tarriela said.
“We also noted the Chinese invasion of Bajo De Masinloc, with the deployment of Chinese Coast Guard ships, Chinese Maritime Militia and even a PLA (People’s Liberation Army) naval vessel.”
Mr Tarriel also said Beijing has no jurisdiction over Scarborough Shoal, citing the 2016 arbitration award and Article 121 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which classified it as a rock.
“The Philippines has sovereignty over it, including its territorial sea. The waters beyond the territorial sea from 12 nautical miles from Bajo de Masinloc to 200 nautical miles are within the Philippine EEZ as measured from the Luzon baseline.
China has rejected the 2016 ruling that invalidated its claims under international law.
Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam all claim parts of the sea. Tensions have increased over concerns over China’s vast claims over their exclusive economic zones.
In April, Republican Sen. Bill Hagerty and Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine introduced a bill that would increase U.S. military aid to the Philippines to $500 million from $40 million over five budget years through 2029.
The Philippines, one of the world’s weakest in military capacity, is important to Washington’s efforts to push back against China, which claims the South China Sea almost in its entirety.
Last month, Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. said he had a “very productive” congratulatory phone call with Mr. John of the United States. Trump, after an election that has left countries in the Indo-Pacific region in a wait-and-see mode.
The Philippine leader said the US-Philippines relationship is “as deep as it can be because it has been around for a long time.”
“Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal have emerged as the two main flashpoints as 2025 begins,” Mr Powell said. “Second Thomas Shoal has withdrawn for the time being as both the Philippines and China appear content with the murky terms of the truce reached last summer.” — of Reuters