(Bloomberg) – US President Donald Trump plans to save rates on goods from Canada and Mexico on Saturday. Now comes the gambling game of how they will influence the global stock market.
Most of them read from Bloomberg
The nuance of every announcement of Trump distilning a challenge for investors. On Thursday, for example, Trump indicated that the rates would start on Saturday, and then on Friday Reuters reported that they would actually take effect on March 1, and eventually the White House confirmed on Friday afternoon that they would in fact be hit on 1 February.
Beyond that little bit of chaos, there is still a lot of uncertainty. Trump could place 25% rates for all import from Canada and Mexico or phase in higher tasks on a monthly basis. He could recover in a targeted way to specific industries such as cars and energy that interpret investors as a softening of his hard warnings. And his plan for China and Europe remains a wildcard.
“Because we do not know what will happen, we must assume that there is a general increase in the rates for just about everything that is imported into the United States,” said Chris Beckett, head of research at Quilter Cheviot. “Then you start to worry about Tit-for-Tat retribution and general reductions in free trade.”
What is interesting is in the 10 days since Trump’s first tariff threat on January 21, the S&P 500 index is essentially plane, while stock benchmarks in Europe, Canada and Mexico are all higher, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which exists More than 4%have risen from companies that consisting of companies in China, but the trade in the US.
“The market has already priced a lot in the field of American rates, but there is always a risk that Trump will go beyond what is expected,” said Gilles Guibout, head of European shares at AXA IM, in a telephone interview. “There is a general sense of uncertainty that goes beyond the rate issue: Trump is completely unpredictable.”
This is a look at which worldwide shares and sectors can run the most due to Trump’s plans:
Canada and Mexico
With the rates at Canada and Mexico as expected in one day, traders are alert to large fluctuations in sectors that are considered the front lines of every trade war.
Automakers such as General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. And Stellantis NV, who have worldwide supply chains and massive exposure to Mexico and Canada, can see considerable fluctuations. Manufacturers of electric vehicles Tesla Inc., Rivian Automotive Inc. and Lucid Group Inc. Could also squeeze it. Entries of the word “rates” are already rising on profit calls.